If an investment strategy sounds too good to be true, look under the hood

Can a portfolio invested 51% within the S&P 500 index obtain the identical returns as one invested 100%?

In mid-March 2020, a monetary advisor instructed one of many authors {that a} current evaluation revealed by a big funding administration agency discovered that it might.

In different phrases, the technique supplies the identical return on the portfolio at solely half the volatility.

At a time when market volatility is exceeding the degrees of the 2008-2009 monetary disaster, such a method has an comprehensible attraction. Given the potential implications, we gave the analysis a better look.

In response to the evaluation, $100,000 invested 100% within the S&P 500 beneath the buy-and-hold technique on March 24, 2000 quantities to $310,570 as of December 31, 2019. The choice technique invested 51% of the $100,000 within the S&P 500 index on March 24, 2000. The analysis signifies what occurred to the remaining 49%, however we discovered that the returns they report are obtained if we put $49,000 beneath a mattress, so a 0% return is assumed. The portfolio was rebalanced to 51% of the market weight on October 9, 2002, October 9, 2007, and March 9, 2009. Between these dates, the worth of the portfolio fluctuated freely.

The 51% Market Weight Technique grew the $100,000 funding to $311,560 on December 31, 2019. So the 51% Market Weight Technique barely outperformed the 100% Market Weight Technique with about half the portfolio danger, simply because the monetary advisor mentioned.

What jumped out at us was the coincidence of the three dates to rebalance. These from 2007 and 2009 correspond to the higher and decrease market, respectively.

Because the current fluctuations related to COVID-19 show, figuring out the optimum time to purchase or promote is tough. For instance, we’d have purchased on March 11, 2020 after the S&P 500 fell 4.9%, solely to see it drop 9.5% the subsequent day. Subsequently, traders will not be prone to rebalance on the given particular dates.

So, how will the totally different dates have an effect on the 51% market weighting technique? Whereas we could not precisely replicate the outcomes, we had been capable of produce one thing comparable utilizing the whole returns from the SPDR S&P 500 Index (SPY), which made sense as a proxy as a result of it is investable and carefully tracks the S&P 500.

In our research, a 100% market weighting technique yielded $304,122 as of December 31, 2019. To barely beat this portfolio, we additionally wanted to speculate 51% available in the market on every rebalancing date. This resulted in a portfolio worth of $306,311 on the finish of 2019.

Utilizing a market weighting of 51% and our knowledge, we examined the portfolio’s sensitivity to rebalancing a bit early or a bit late. First, we rebalanced the portfolio every week earlier than every of the unique rebalancing dates. That gave us a portfolio worth on the finish of the measurement interval of $292,772, 3.7% lower than the 100% market weighted technique. Then, we rebalanced the portfolio one week after the unique dates. This resulted in a portfolio worth on the finish of 2019 of $278,587, which is 8.4% lower than the 100% market weighted technique.

Adjusting the rebalancing dates by two calendar weeks and the outcomes are worse. Two weeks in the past, $100,000 turns into $281,559 – 7.4% under the 100% market weighted technique. Two weeks later, it is value $262,884, or 13.6% under the 100% market weight technique. Usually, the rating stays for nearly all (~98%) potential shifts of 1 week or two weeks for rebalancing dates.

So what is the takeaway?

Executing a 51% market weighting technique requires excessive market timing: the precise rebalancing dates should be chosen completely. Failing that, we’re higher off with a buy-and-hold technique that’s 100% invested available in the market.

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All posts are the opinion of the writer. As such, it shouldn’t be construed as funding recommendation, nor do the opinions expressed essentially replicate the views of the CFA Institute or the writer’s employer.

Photograph credit score: © Getty Pictures / Giorez

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